Long-Term Demographic Trends in Prehistoric Italy: Climate Impacts and Regionalised Socio-Ecological Trajectories

Abstract The Italian peninsula offers an excellent case study within which to investigate long-term regional demographic trends and their response climate fluctuations, especially given its diverse landscapes, latitudinal range varied elevations. In the past two decades, summed probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon dates have become important method for inferring population dynamics in prehistory. Recent advances this approach also allow statistical assessment spatio-temporal patterning trends. paper we reconstruct change whole from Late Mesolithic Early Iron Age (10,000–2800 cal yr BP). How did patterns vary across time space? Were fluctuations human related change? order answer these questions, collated a large list published (n = 4010) use firstly infer as whole, before addressing each five sub-regions turn (northern, central, southern Italy, Sicily, Sardinia). We compare with local paleoclimate proxies (cave, lake, marine records). At pan-regional scale, results show general rapid substantial increase Neolithic introduction farming at around 8000 BP further dramatic increases during Bronze (~ 3800–2800 However, different trajectories exist regions suggesting variety localised responses shifts. Population appear been more closely correlated early–mid Holocene (Mesolithic–Neolithic), while later (Bronze–Iron Ages) they decouple. Overall, by region depended on socio-ecological prevailing area. Finally, include brief ‘Radiocarbon dated central Mediterranean prehistory’ Parkinson et al. (J Word Prehist 34(3), 2021)—synchronously Journal World Prehistory but wholly independently developed—indicating how our conclusions accord or differ one another.